Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Clashes Raise Fear of Hard Line in Myanmar

Soldiers patrol on Thursday in a neighborhood destroyed by recent violence in Sittwe,
the main town in Rakhine state in western Myanmar.
YANGON, Myanmar—Decades-old ethnic divisions that have spawned the bloodiest clashes in years in remote areas of Myanmar are threatening to take the shine off the country's new image as Asia's next big frontier market.

At least 29 people have been killed in clashes between local Buddhists and stateless Rohingya Muslims since June 8 in Rakhine State along Myanmar's western border with Bangladesh, officials said Thursday.

President Thein Sein declared a state of emergency in the area on Sunday and warned the country that further bloodshed could set back its continuing transformation, which has taken Myanmar, also known as Burma, from a reclusive military state to a quasi-democracy.

The military junta that controlled Myanmar for five decades until setting up a quasi-civilian government last year long justified its harsh rule by saying the country, with its numerous rival ethnic groups, would spin out of control if they weren't governed by a strong hand.

One risk now, analysts say, is that military leaders will put the brakes on further overhauls, even as democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi tours Europe and Western investors study whether it is time to invest in Myanmar.

Ms. Suu Kyi's schedule includes delivering her Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech in Oslo on Saturday, 21 years after winning the award. On Thursday, the 66-year-old fell ill during a news conference in Bern, Switzerland, after saying she was exhausted by her trip from Asia, the Associated Press reported. She later attended a reception before retiring early, a Swiss spokesman said.

Some analysts warn that the more open political climate that has evolved in Myanmar over the past year has allowed people to use new freedoms to reopen old wounds.

"The outbreak of communal tensions is an unwelcome byproduct of the government's political reform drive, and if not tackled carefully, could derail much of the progress made over the past year," said Jan Zalewski, an analyst at risk consultancy IHS Global Insight.

The leadership's overhauls have included releasing political prisoners such as Ms. Suu Kyi, opening up the media and allowing freer elections. In April, Ms. Suu Kyi contested and won a seat in the country's parliament, encouraging the U.S. and European Union to suspend long-standing sanctions leveled at the country for its human-rights abuses. Political leaders in the U.S. and Europe have said ending the country's ethnic conflicts is an important step to permanently ending their sanctions.

For Mr. Thein Sein and other leaders such as Ms. Suu Kyi, finding a lasting solution to the country's myriad regional and ethnic divisions is critical. Although about 70% of Myanmar's population is Burman, the dominant ethnicity, the rest is split between ethnic minorities including Wa, Shan, Karen, Kachin and other groups, many of which have waged decadeslong insurgencies against the government.

Mr. Thein Sein's nominally civilian government, which took power last year, has secured cease-fire agreements with some insurgent groups and promised to work harder to make peace.

Flare-ups continue, though, especially in northern Kachin state, one of the most resource-rich parts of the country. Kachin insurgents and Myanmar military forces have clashed repeatedly in recent months.

Another group, the Karen, have threatened to block roads and otherwise disrupt a $50 billion industrial zone called Dawei that investors hope to develop now that Myanmar is opening up.

In addition, periodic demonstrations against Muslim Rohingyas have spread to the main city Yangon, propelled in part by growing use of mobile phones and social-networking sites. That is driving concerns the clashes in Rakhine State could further poison relations between Buddhists and Muslims in more economically significant parts of the country.

This comes as Western businesses assess when or how quickly to invest in Myanmar after sanctions were suspended. The country is a largely untapped market of over 50 million people and rich in natural resources—many of them in ethnic-minority areas.

Local business executives say potential foreign partners are concerned that there could be backsliding on recent political reform because of the situation in Rakhine State.

Security analysts, meanwhile, say road closures and other disruptions could affect infrastructure projects such as a Chinese-invested oil and gas pipeline project near the town of Kyaukpyu, adding to the uncertainty about the country's long-term economic direction.

The clashes in themselves aren't enough to unwind Mr. Thein Sein's reform drive, says Sean Turnell, a professor at Australia's Macquarie University and an experienced observer of Myanmar affairs, "but it does show how things can go wrong."

The violence also speaks to an old problem in Myanmar: Who is and who isn't part of the Union of Myanmar, as the country is formally known.

While the government is eager to seal peace deals with many large ethnic groups, it regards the Rohingyas in Rakhine State to be illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and denies them citizenship. Bangladesh says Rohingyas have settled in Myanmar for centuries and argues that it has too few resources to offer refuge to any of the estimated 800,000 Rohingyas living in Myanmar in abject poverty.

Human-rights groups consider Rohingyas among the world's most persecuted people. Many flee Myanmar in rickety boats, hoping to land in Malaysia or other countries where they can find a new life. Many are lost at sea. Some find land, only to be towed out by local authorities and set adrift once more, as happened in Thailand in 2009.

Since the outbreak of the latest violence in Rakhine State, Bangladesh has come under increasing pressure to allow refugees across its border. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Washington is urging Bangladesh to respect its obligations under international conventions for the treatment of refugees.

So far, Bangladesh officials say they have turned away 1,500 Rohingyas trying to escape the conflict in Rakhine State. Officials have said at least 1,600 homes have been torched in the conflict, without elaborating on whether they are owned by Buddhists or Muslims.

In Yangon and elsewhere, anger is growing at Rohingyas and other Muslims. The latest violence began after three Muslim men allegedly raped and killed a Buddhist woman last month. A mob of around 100 people then lynched 10 Muslim men, triggered a series of bloody reprisals.

In the past week, 13 Buddhist Rakhines and 16 Rohingyas have been killed, Myanmar officials told the AP.