The phrase is used, only half-jokingly, by diplomats and expatriates to describe how the recent explosion of reformist fervour is stretching the government’s painfully limited capabilities almost beyond breaking point. But there is a more serious point – a growing concern that Myanmar’s reformers might not be able to do everything they want to do or that the international community is demanding of them.
Not long ago, a single regulatory reform might have taken a year or more to implement in Myanmar, previously known as Burma. Now, a new policy can emerge in a matter of days. “This is a government in a hurry and it wants everything done yesterday,” said a Yangon-based diplomat.
Judging by official communications, Myanmar’s bureaucrats appear to be working seven days a week. Emails come at odd times of day and night. Announcements can emerge at dawn. Government meetings take place even at midnight.
“There is indeed a danger that people will burn out. That’s why they need help,” said David Lipman, the European Union’s ambassador to Myanmar. “This is a government crying out for help in capacity-building, at every level . . . they want to do so many things. The real problem is implementation.”
A long-time expat businessman explains how a “tiny handful” of people are trying to make enormous changes on all fronts. “There are probably no more than 20 to 30 competent people in this government who can do this stuff – and they’re definitely not getting any sleep. They’re trying to negotiate with ethnic rebels, draw up everything from land reform to financial regulation and liaise with western organisations – while fighting a rearguard action from people who benefited from the status quo.”
Indeed, says an American aid worker, “there are a few who know how to run things and then there’s the rest, who’ve never been trained in anything, who sit around waiting for orders, who have come up in a bureaucratic dictatorship system where initiative is punished, not rewarded. And that’s the system supposedly overseeing this incredible change.”
Myanmar clearly lacks the institutions needed to support and deepen the democratisation process and implement planned reforms, warns Susanne Kempel, a European aid consultant. “Decades of neglect of the public sector, a poor education system and inadequate training of civil servants [have] created a void in capacity – which might just be the biggest obstacle to reform in the country.”
The crisis in capacity is not just confined to the bureaucracy. From diplomats and business executives to aid workers and tourism industry representatives, all involved in Myanmar’s push to open up risk “burn-out syndrome”. Hotels are running at near 100 per cent occupancy, aid organisations – multilateral and non-governmental – are coming to seek potential projects and business people are flooding in to assess opportunities.
It is what Phil Robertson, who has worked on Myanmar issues for two decades and now heads Human Rights Watch in Thailand, calls the “ultimate gold rush”.
“We’re not just talking about the Burmese. This is the moment when diplomats can make their name, when aid groups can set up and have big input; it’s the place where careers are going to be made – it’s a fantastic opportunity for anyone with capacity or ability to be on the front line; if you’re a local NGO with any track record, every donor in the world is going to be banging on your door with money; if you have a couple of old houses, you can fix them up and rent to foreigners. And if you’re Burmese and in business, you’re looking like a potential joint venture partner for foreign companies.”
On a policy level, the government may be trying to do too much, too fast, say diplomats. Many warn that the hectic pace is resulting in flawed policies, draft legislation riddled with loopholes and ad hoc decisions.
One example is the government’s abrupt cancellation of mega-projects, including the decision last September to suspend a $3.6bn Chinese dam project at Myitsone in the north, and the recent move to cancel a Thai, coal-fired power plant at Dawei in the south-east.
While such decisions may reflect a new desire to “listen to the people’s voices”, as President Thein Sein has said, there has been no explanation or consultation with the companies concerned.
Another concern is new legislation, for example, proposed laws to reform land use. These were “written in haste and without proper consultation with key stakeholders including land experts, and fail to provide adequate guarantees for millions of small farmers”, says a consultant to international NGOs.
“So many momentous things are happening there’s no room to pause,” says one young western diplomat. “You have to grab the moment; the trouble is, people are going to burn out”.
